Lottery Odds Analyzer
Built-in presets for Powerball, Mega Millions and EuroMillions plus a custom mode. We show the full probability table, expected value per ticket (assuming jackpot rolls over the published annuity value), and a side-by-side "annuity vs lump sum" comparison for the headline jackpot.
Match & payout table
P(hit any prize)
Expected value / ticket
EV uses the jackpot at face value, federal+state tax excluded, lump-sum multiplier 0.6.
Annuity vs lump sum
Annuity value is the published number. Lump sum is typically 50–62% after withholdings and discount; we use 60% by default. After-tax is what actually clears the bank — usually 50% to 60% depending on jurisdiction.
Method note
Each ticket has a probability computed from hypergeometric-without-replacement: (C(N₁, k₁) · C(N₂, k₂)) matched against ordered combinations. The expected value is the sum over all payouts of P(match tier) × payout minus ticket price.
Who uses this
Recreational players
Quantifies how negative the EV actually is, so fantasy stays fantasy.
Tax planners
Annuity vs lump: spreads tax brackets across 30 years vs one heavy year.
Personal-finance writers
Source numbers for articles with simple, linkable citations.
When not to trust this
- EV ignores taxes, secondary prizes can shift, and the lump-sum multiplier moves with interest rates.
- Pool sizes for lotteries occasionally change (e.g. Powerball went 59/35 → 69/26 in 2015; Mega 75/15 → 70/25 in 2017). Confirm before quoting.
- For very high rollovers, headline EV can briefly turn positive — a real effect known as the "carry-over return" but rarely exceeds 0.
FAQ
Does buying more tickets help?
Yes — linearly with the count. To halve your expected time to hit the jackpot you'd need to double the tickets. Spending more than you can afford does not move EV per ticket above zero.
Why is the headline EV sometimes negative?
Because the lottery operator's take (around 50%) and the secondary prize pool eat most of the prize money, and the jackpot's huge expected payout is reserved for an event with probability ~1 in 300 million.