Blackjack Bust Advisor
Three calculators in one: (1) bust probability for any hand value, (2) full basic-strategy recommendation per dealer upcard, (3) Hi-Lo adjusted EV by true count. All built on a 6/8-deck infinite-shoe approximation; we caveat for finite-shoe variance below.
Bust probability
Basic strategy
For each player total × dealer upcard the table shows H (hit), S (stand), D (double), P (split). Totals assume soft-ace logic where applicable.
Hi-Lo adjusted EV
Method note
Bust probability is 1 − P(sum ≤ 21); we enumerate the actual card distribution of an N-deck shoe. The Hi-Lo adjustment uses a published +0.5% EV swing per +1 true count (Thorp-Zen count). The basic-strategy table is the 6-deck, dealer-stands-on-soft-17 (S17), peek-on-10/ace variant. Use 6-deck results; the 1-deck variant differs (no double after split on Aces, etc.).
When not to trust this
- Casinos differ on rules (DAS allowed, surrender). H/S decisions in the marginal cells depend on these.
- We ignore side bets. Side bets typically have EV worse than −5%.
- The 6/8-deck infinite-shoe model undercounts the variance you actually see in a finite shoe.
FAQ
Does card counting work online?
In live-dealer online games, yes — the shoe is finite. In RNG-driven games with a new shuffle each hand, no.
What about insurance?
Always pass on insurance at any count up to TC=+3. Above TC=+3 the side-EV improves but rarely enough to cover table variance.